The reasons for this are only being investigated. Strong IOD events tend to occur roughly every 10 years. As someone who has been following IOD closely for many years, what are the multi-decadal trends you have noted? Is the phenomenon changing over time? In other words, warm SST anomaly on its own is not El Niño it must be accompanied by certain atmospheric variations.Ģ. In my personal opinion, there are decadal signals over the Pacific which has persisted for several years now, and which is sometimes mistaken for El Niño. A more precise statement would be that there was warm SST (sea surface temperature) over certain portions of the tropical (and extra tropical) Pacific, which led to an expectation that an El Niño would develop. Therefore, it is not expected that IOD will influence All India (averaged) rainfall as a whole.Īs to El Niño, there was none to start with despite some of the climate forecast community talking about one. However, the monsoonal rainfall as a whole has significant decadal variations, and many regions of India are not affected by IOD. The monsoon rainfall pattern of 2019 reflects the influence of IOD, with excess cumulative rainfall observed over western Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch, and northern parts of the Western Ghats (Goa, Maharashtra, and northern Kerala). There are significant positive correlations between IOD and rainfall over central India and northwestern India This influence extends towards regions of Pakistan and Iran as well. The IOD’s influence on the Indian region has a distinct regional signature. Has IOD ‘saved’ the monsoon for us, or did the rapid weakening of El Niño play a role as well? It seems at this point that Monsoon 2019 will be a normal one for India. The Weather Channel caught up with the professor to discuss what this latest development means for India and other regions.ġ. He was part of the team that first identified the phenomenon, presented to the world through a seminal report published in 1999. Now, one of the scientists who discovered the IOD says that 2019 is set to be one of the strongest IOD years on record-a development that could be good for India, but have grave consequences for other parts of the world.ĭr Saji N Hameed, Professor at Japan’s University of Aizu, is one of the world’s leading experts on IOD.
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